The Zone of Uncertainty


This graphic uses a metaphor we like, and which delegates seem to relate to very easily. The zone of uncertainty, where demand for information is possible at its highest but availability of it is low, is where some tough decisions have to be made early in a crisis. So the question is…how can we drive the demand curve down and the availability curve up, in order to make life easier for crisis managers? Part of the solution involves crisis managers learning to be comfortable in uncertainty, which comes with empowerment and a tolerance for understandable mistakes. Decisions may have to be made in that zone of uncertainty and with incomplete knowledge; in our view this should be the primary focus of crisis management learning.